Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Who's on each side
Whale money on this market, split by track record. Proven wallets beat the price over 20+ graded bets; losing wallets clearly lost to it. Everyone else is unrated.
| Side | All whales | Proven | Losing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not Yes | $5.63M 104 flags |
$39.9k 1 wallet |
none |
| Yes | $4.99M 124 flags |
$206.8k 3 wallets |
none |
| No | $2.70M 65 flags |
$51.0k 3 wallets |
$589.9k 2 wallets |
| Not No | $737.4k 20 flags |
none | none |
A proven wallet on a side is a reason to look closer, not a verdict. Records come from past bets; see how to use this. Information, not advice.
Flags on this market
| Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $149.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $590.0k 39.0× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $94.4k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $84.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $77.7k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $28.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| HIGH SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $598.3k 5.5× usual |
excluded |
| MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.37M 43.8× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $149.8k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $137.9k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $62.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $39.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $32.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $25.4k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.6k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $21.3k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $371.9k 11.9× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $99.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| MED BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $297.1k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $69.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $49.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $71.3k | excluded |
| MED BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $254.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $34.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ | $75.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.4¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $34.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $31.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ | $32.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 96.7¢ | $23.8k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $14.3k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.1¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.8¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ | $39.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ | $49.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.4¢ | $58.7k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $46.3k | excluded |
| MED BUY Yes @ 97.1¢ | $149.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢ | $10.1k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 95.8¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| MED BUY Yes @ 97.3¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $43.4k | excluded |
| MED SELL Yes @ 97.1¢ | $255.9k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.8¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $11.7k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.3¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ | $143.3k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $148.1k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ | $93.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| HIGH SELL Yes @ 95.7¢ | $110.7k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| MED SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ | $143.4k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.7¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $13.4k | called |
| MED BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ | $68.2k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $49.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $64.1k 3.5× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $14.3k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 92.9¢ | $15.0k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $11.9k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢ | $10.1k | called |
| MED SELL Yes @ 91.7¢ | $59.6k | missed |
| MED BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ | $67.0k 2.2× usual |
called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 94.9¢ | $23.6k | missed |
| MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ | $59.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.3¢ | $79.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $14.4k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $11.7k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $14.4k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ | $50.0k | called |
| MED SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ | $51.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ | $15.4k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 95.4¢ | $18.1k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ | $18.4k | called |
| MED BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ | $91.3k 3.8× usual |
called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 96.4¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| MED SELL Yes @ 97.1¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 97.1¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 95.2¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $70.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $19.6k | called |
| MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $34.6k | called |
| MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $25.9k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $15.7k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $16.6k | missed |
| MED SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $20.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 27¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 29¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| MED BUY No @ 24¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 24¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $92.9k 3.4× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $16.4k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $17.8k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $20.0k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $11.5k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $10.2k | called |
| MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $33.4k | called |
| MED BUY No @ 32¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ | $41.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $10.5k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $13.2k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $12.3k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $12.9k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $68.3k 4.6× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $10.9k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 51¢ | $13.8k | missed |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 47¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $13.6k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 50¢ | $10.5k | called |
| LOW SELL No @ 55¢ | $26.3k | called |
| MED BUY No @ 59¢ | $25.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.3k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $18.4k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $18.9k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 75¢ | $13.9k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $16.5k | missed |
| MED SELL No @ 82¢ | $36.9k | called |
| LOW SELL No @ 83¢ | $10.5k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $42.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $16.5k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $22.6k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $12.0k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $14.3k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $21.6k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $23.0k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $14.7k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $15.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $11.1k | called |
| HIGH SELL No @ 75¢ | $100.3k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $27.9k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $10.1k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $11.7k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $25.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $98.9k 3.9× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $85.0k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $147.6k 5.8× usual |
missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 76¢ | $10.9k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $11.4k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $13.3k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $20.1k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.1k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $77.4k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $13.6k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.5k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $11.8k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $16.2k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| MED SELL No @ 83¢ | $65.9k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $13.7k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $92.3k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 33¢ | $66.8k 2.0× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $22.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $17.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $23.3k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $34.5k | missed |
| MED SELL No @ 81¢ | $50.5k | called |
| LOW SELL No @ 83¢ | $11.0k | called |
| MED BUY No @ 86¢ | $176.5k 5.3× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $13.5k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $71.6k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $151.5k 6.1× usual |
missed |
| MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $202.7k 7.9× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $43.8k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $13.6k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $55.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $85.5k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| MED SELL No @ 75¢ | $65.8k 2.3× usual |
called |
| LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $31.9k | missed |
| HIGH SELL No @ 67¢ | $148.8k | called |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| MED BUY No @ 66¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $19.6k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $32.2k | missed |
| MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $118.3k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $16.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.0k | called |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $13.9k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $11.7k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| LOW SELL No @ 70¢ | $14.0k | called |
| LOW SELL No @ 71¢ | $22.1k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $61.7k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $23.6k | missed |
Summary
WhaleGrader has logged 313 whale trades on this market totalling $14.05M from 210 wallets. The largest was $1.37M (sell Yes at 99.9¢). Most whale money ($5.63M) went against Yes. 144 of 313 graded flags here called the outcome. The biggest whale here, gmanas ($1.74M), has called 12 of 17 graded flags overall (+4.8 pts vs price).
Market data from Polymarket (khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31).