Snoorrason

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?−$2,588No · avg 63¢ → 59¢ · $36.2k Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,474Yes · avg 48¢ → 52¢ · $18.9k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$13No · avg 91.6¢ → 91.5¢ · $14.5k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$338Yes · avg 78¢ → 83¢ · $5,009 Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?+$364Yes · avg 29¢ → 46¢ · $962 Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?+$423Yes · avg 33¢ → 59¢ · $958 Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?+$258Yes · avg 17¢ → 27¢ · $671 Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?+$132Yes · avg 9.9¢ → 13¢ · $600

Price-adjusted edge

+3.8 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$122.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$188.9k

Last 30 days +$8,156 · $14.00M volume · 29,751 trades · since Oct 21, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$3.25M

Open P&L · 316 positions

+$5,587

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

733d

4886 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$10.1k	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$101.8k 10.1× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢	$10.1k	96%	237d ago	called

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$10.1k

LOW Snoorrason · 143d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$101.8k

LOW Snoorrason · 144d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?called

BUY Yes @ 96.2¢$10.1k

LOW Snoorrason · 237d ago

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