Polymarket · price-adjusted track records

Copying every whale loses to the price. Following the proven few hasn't.

We grade every $10k+ Polymarket bet against the price paid. The average whale does worse than the market expected, which is the reason to filter: we pick wallets on their past record, then check them only on bets placed after we picked them.

See proven wallets' open bets How to use it

See any market's whale flags or any wallet's graded record.

Whale bets tracked: 63,887
Money tracked: $3083.56M
Wallets graded: 11,756
$10k+ bets, last 24h: 685

Live · counters refresh every 15s · 4m ago

The scoreboard

Copy every whale

-3.6 pts

10,543 graded bets · ±0.4

Won 54.5% vs 58.2% the prices implied.

Follow proven wallets

+6.8 pts

177 later bets · ±3.2

14 wallets picked on bets before Jul 06, 02:13 EDT; all whales over the same later period: -2.8 pts.

Edge = share of bets won minus share the entry prices implied. The proven-wallet sample is small: suggestive, not proof. Full scoreboard →

How to use WhaleGrader

1Find proven walletsThe few whales who beat the price over 20+ graded bets. See what they hold now. 2Follow themStar a wallet or set an alert rule so new bets from it reach you. 3Check before you tradePaste your wallet to see whether proven wallets are with or against each position. Or check any market via search.

Information, not advice. Worked examples →

Receipts · 2026-10-23

The biggest whale that day, YYYYY999, put $339.7k on 12 bets that have resolved. 6 of 12 called vs 5.6 the prices implied.

Big size isn't the same as being right. See every bet that day →

Live tape: $10k+ trades right nowconnecting…

Loading the latest $10k+ trades from Polymarket…

Straight from Polymarket's public trade feed, refreshed every 10s while this tab is open. Grades appear after markets resolve. Information, not advice.

Proven whales' open bets

Unresolved trades from the last 7 days by wallets with a positive record on 20+ graded flags. "Now" is today's price: if it has moved, a late copy pays more than the whale did.

All →

UFC 333: Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)BUY Iasmin Lucindo at 78¢ → now 78¢ · omnibus-076daa · 39/67 graded · 18h ago · closes in 9h $11.6k+11.3 pts edge

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?BUY Yes at 52¢ → now 52¢ (-1) · omnibus-076daa · 39/67 graded · 33m ago · closes in 11h $10.9k+11.3 pts edge

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5BUY Over at 55¢ → now 56¢ (+1) · omnibus-076daa · 39/67 graded · 12m ago $10.4k+11.3 pts edge

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY No at 95¢ → now 94.5¢ (-1) · GoriIIa · 32/34 graded · 17h ago $19.0k+12.8 pts edge

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL Yes at 92¢ → now 92¢ · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 10h ago · 2.2× usual size $109.5k+12.9 pts edge

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY Yes at 67¢ → now 66¢ (-1) · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 1d ago $86.7k+12.9 pts edge

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL No at 92¢ → now 91.5¢ (+1) · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 2d ago $64.4k+12.9 pts edge

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY Yes at 67¢ → now 66¢ (-1) · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 18h ago · adds to earlier bet $49.8k+12.9 pts edge

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseSELL No at 92¢ → now 92.5¢ (-1) · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 10h ago $48.1k+12.9 pts edge

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL No at 92¢ → now 91.5¢ (+1) · ndb1 · 16/25 graded · 10h ago · adds to earlier bet $34.7k+12.9 pts edge