# WhaleGrader

> WhaleGrader tracks large Polymarket trades ("whale flags") and grades each one against the price paid once the market resolves. It publishes hits and misses, sample sizes and a price-adjusted edge. Data only; not financial advice.

Current headline (rebuilt every 15 minutes): 5759 of 10562 scored whale flags called vs 6143.5 expected from entry prices; edge -3.6 pts.

## Key pages
- [Methodology](https://whalegrader.com/methodology): definitions of flag, called, expected, edge, exclusions; includes a daily independent check of a random sample of grades against Polymarket's on-chain resolution payouts (https://whalegrader.com/methodology#audit)
- [Backtest](https://whalegrader.com/backtest): hypothetical P&L from copying a wallet's past graded flags at entry prices (with slippage and out-of-sample options)
- [Alerts](https://whalegrader.com/alerts): alert rules for wallets, markets, severity, proven wallets (in-page matches)
- [$5k+ feed](https://whalegrader.com/flags/5k): live trades over $5k (the $5k-$10k ones are not graded)
- [Findings](https://whalegrader.com/findings): tests of common claims (late money, fresh wallets on long shots, bet size) against graded outcomes
- [Kalshi](https://whalegrader.com/kalshi): $10k+ Kalshi trades and 20-pt odds moves from Kalshi public data, graded vs price (no trader identity; separate from Polymarket stats)
- [Scoreboard](https://whalegrader.com/scoreboard): called vs expected by price bucket and category
- [Receipts](https://whalegrader.com/receipts): every resolved flag, hits and misses
- [Daily recaps](https://whalegrader.com/days): one page per day with the biggest whale trades, sharpest odds moves and what resolved
- [Weekly report cards](https://whalegrader.com/weeks): one page per ISO week with called vs expected, best calls and biggest misses
- [Leaderboard](https://whalegrader.com/leaderboard): wallets ranked by price-adjusted edge (minimum sample)
- [Trending markets](https://whalegrader.com/markets): markets ranked by whale volume
- [Live flags](https://whalegrader.com/flags): all flags, filterable
- [Consensus](https://whalegrader.com/consensus): open markets where several proven wallets hold the same side
- [Heatmap](https://whalegrader.com/heatmap): whale volume by category and time
- [Fresh wallets](https://whalegrader.com/fresh): large trades from wallets new to Polymarket (first activity < 14 days or <= 5 markets traded)
- [Alternatives](https://whalegrader.com/alternatives): how WhaleGrader compares with other Polymarket whale tools
- [Smart money](https://whalegrader.com/smart): latest trades from wallets with positive graded edge
- [API](https://whalegrader.com/api): free JSON API (/api/v1/flags, /api/v1/leaderboard, /api/v1/scoreboard, /api/v1/wallet/<address>, /api/v1/market/<condition_id>) and RSS (https://whalegrader.com/feed.xml)
- [FAQ](https://whalegrader.com/faq)
- [Open data](https://whalegrader.com/data): every graded flag as CSV (https://whalegrader.com/data/graded_flags.csv) and the scoreboard, findings and copy-lag tables as JSON (https://whalegrader.com/data/findings.json); CC BY 4.0, cite as "WhaleGrader"
- [Copy-lag study](https://whalegrader.com/findings): how much edge is left if you copy a whale trade 1, 5 or 15 minutes late
- [Look up a market or wallet](https://whalegrader.com/go): paste any polymarket.com market, event or profile URL
- [Status](https://whalegrader.com/status): last collector and grader runs
- [Guides](https://whalegrader.com/learn):
  - [Polymarket leaderboards explained](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-leaderboard-explained): Profit leaderboards, volume leaderboards and edge leaderboards measure different things. Here is how to read each one.
  - [How Polymarket markets resolve](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-polymarket-markets-resolve): What happens between a market closing and a trade being graded, and why some flags stay pending for a while.
  - [Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves](https://whalegrader.com/learn/reading-polymarket-odds-moves): What a 10-point swing in 24 hours can mean, and how to filter out the noise.
  - [How to track Polymarket whales](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-to-track-polymarket-whales): A practical guide to finding and following large Polymarket trades, and how to tell a big trade from a good one.
  - [What is price-adjusted edge?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/price-adjusted-edge): Why win rate is misleading for prediction-market traders, and how WhaleGrader scores whales against the price they paid.
  - [Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-insider-signals): What a large bet from a brand-new wallet can and cannot tell you.
  - [Does copying Polymarket whales work?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/copy-trading-polymarket-whales): We re-priced thousands of graded whale bets as if you copied them 1 minute to 24 hours late. Being late barely matters. Picking the wallet is everything.
  - [Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-fresh-wallets): New wallets making big bets get shared as insider signals. Here's what thousands of graded bets say about wallet age.
  - [Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-whale-alerts): Most whale alerts fire on every big trade. Here's how to filter for the ones with a track record behind them.
  - [Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-data-api-whale-trades): How to get every $10k+ Polymarket trade from the public Data API v2, and the traps to avoid.
  - [Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-sports-whales): Sports is most of Polymarket's whale volume. Here's why sports bets are hard to grade fairly and hard to copy.
  - [How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-to-read-a-polymarket-wallet): Win rate, profit and edge each tell you something different. Here's how to judge a wallet in under a minute.

## Definitions
- Whale flag: Polymarket taker trade >= $10,000; same wallet/market/side fills within 1 hour are merged.
- Called: the flagged side won. Missed: it lost.
- Expected: entry price for buys, 1 - price for sells.
- Edge: (called - expected) / n, in percentage points.
- Excluded: flags placed less than 1 hour before a market's start or close; near-certain entries (price >= 97c or <= 3c); flags with no outcome; two-sided (market-maker style) wallet activity in the same market.

## Data
Source: Polymarket public APIs (Data, Gamma, CLOB). Live tape every ~10 seconds; stored flags every 15 minutes. Grades are cross-checked against Polymarket's on-chain resolutions. Covers international (on-chain) Polymarket, not Polymarket US.