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tetrase

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 5.3 wins, so it did +20.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +10.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 5 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+20.7 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
5.3
Flagged volume
$3.67M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$258k
8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$258k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? at 7¢) and the edge is +10.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 5% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$949.8k
Last 30 days +$92.5k · $116.22M volume · 98,724 trades · since Dec 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.12M
Open P&L · 220 positions
−$15.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
684d
1580 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other875.3+20.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $35.4k100% 15h agopending
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $24.7k99% 19h agopending
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $33.2k99% 23h agopending
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $13.2k96% 1d agopending
Trump out as President before 2027?LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ $73.1k
3.7× usual
95% 2d agopending
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $12.6k6% 2d agopending
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $33.3k0% 7d agoexcluded
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $41.8k
2.1× usual
0% 7d agoexcluded
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $34.0k99% 7d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k99% 28d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $34.8k99% 28d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $19.8k99% 33d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $18.5k1% 39d agoexcluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ $24.2k96% 57d agocalled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ $34.0k94% 59d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $11.7k87% 59d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $11.3k91% 59d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $13.1k1% 59d agoexcluded
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $11.9k99% 65d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $13.7k0% 66d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $10.1k1% 75d agoexcluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $11.2k91% 88d agocalled
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $16.8k84% 98d agocalled
Trump out as President by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $11.6k99% 111d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $11.6k77% 111d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $14.9k99% 130d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ $16.5k2% 130d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $36.7k1% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $19.7k79% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 90.7¢ $44.5k
2.2× usual
91% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ $98.0k
4.9× usual
64% 131d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ $25.1k85% 131d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $11.5k94% 137d agoexcluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $10.3k5% 137d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $74.9k
3.7× usual
94% 137d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $112.1k
5.6× usual
0% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $12.5k98% 140d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $55.3k
2.8× usual
0% 140d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.6k100% 140d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ $10.4k95% 142d agocalled
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $19.8k99% 143d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $39.4k3% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $19.8k99% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $361.0k
18.1× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $23.2k0% 144d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $13.9k2% 144d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $18.8k98% 146d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $25.2k3% 152d agoexcluded
Trump kiss by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $130.1k
6.5× usual
0% 156d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 93.7¢ $12.9k6% 157d agomissed
Trump kiss by May 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ $17.8k59% 157d agocalled
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $65.3k
3.3× usual
0% 159d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $13.3k1% 163d agoexcluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $36.9k0% 165d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 167d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $26.3k0% 173d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 90¢ $12.6k10% 173d agomissed
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 173d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
100% 174d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 93.2¢ $15.5k7% 176d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $42.0k
2.1× usual
100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $32.8k100% 176d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $49.0k
2.5× usual
0% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 96.2¢ $19.5k4% 176d agomissed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $15.2k0% 176d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $68.2k
3.4× usual
0% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $12.0k100% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $40.9k
2.0× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $29.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $14.9k100% 180d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $10.6k92% 180d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $10.5k0% 183d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $10.1k0% 183d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $59.9k
3.0× usual
0% 183d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $35.0k0% 183d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $13.9k97% 184d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.3k0% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $22.1k1% 185d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% 189d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $24.7k1% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $29.3k1% 190d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $24.9k0% 193d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.3k0% 193d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $14.7k86% 195d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $19.3k97% 196d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $11.2k95% 197d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
0% 199d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $99.7k
5.0× usual
2% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $19.9k0% 199d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $89.9k
4.5× usual
0% 202d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $26.9k0% 205d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $89.9k
4.5× usual
100% 205d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 212d agoexcluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $11.6k98% 227d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $123.9k
6.2× usual
0% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $127.3k
6.4× usual
100% 237d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $11.3k0% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 264d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $11.6k100% 266d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $149.8k
7.5× usual
0% 266d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $10.9k0% 269d agoexcluded

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