← Wallets
+$5,338No · avg 89¢ → 92.5¢ · $155.1k+$3,407Yes · avg 87¢ → 96.2¢ · $34.9k−$4,579Yes · avg 59¢ → 44¢ · $13.4k−$2,787No · avg 62¢ → 45¢ · $7,386+$1,380No · avg 66¢ → 87¢ · $5,622+$26No · avg 81¢ → 81¢ · $4,202 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$257Yes · avg 52¢ → 48¢ · $2,842+$57No · avg 87¢ → 96.4¢ · $582
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 17 of 17. The prices it paid implied about 15.3 wins, so it did +9.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.7 pts
Called / graded
17/17
Expected from price
15.3
Flagged volume
$1.28M
Sample size17 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$50k17 graded bets in the order they resolved · 17 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 75¢) and the edge is +8.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=16
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$167.4k
Last 30 days +$12.3k · $7.27M volume · 3,304 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$164.8k
Open P&L · 9 positions
+$4,812
Closed-position win rate
80%
65 closed
Wallet age · markets
284d
74 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | +15.9 pts |
| Other | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | +9.5 pts |
| Crypto | 7 | 7 | 6.6 | +5.5 pts |
History
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