Markets · smart gap
Smart gap
Open markets with recent whale trades, ranked by how lopsided the money of rated wallets is among the current top holders (at least 2 rated wallets): proven money on one side, minus proven money on the other and losing-record money on the leaning side.
What this means. A big gap says wallets with a good record against the price hold one side and wallets with a bad record don't. It's based on a handful of wallets, it doesn't know their exit plans, and the price may already reflect it. Information, not advice.
Checked 104 open markets; 32 have 2+ rated wallets among their top holders.
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseProven lean: Yes at 66¢ · 3 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$1.42Mnet rated $
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseProven lean: No at 99.2¢ · 2 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$681.7knet rated $
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Proven lean: No at 94.5¢ · 3 proven on that side · 4 rated holders
+$658.6knet rated $
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Proven lean: Yes at 91.5¢ · 3 proven on that side · 5 rated holders
+$602.3knet rated $
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Proven lean: No at 91.5¢ · 3 proven on that side · 5 rated holders
+$591.2knet rated $
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Proven lean: No at 6.5¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$424.0knet rated $
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Proven lean: Yes at 68¢ · 1 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$259.2knet rated $
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseProven lean: No at 92.5¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$241.1knet rated $
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Proven lean: No at 93.3¢ · 1 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$193.7knet rated $
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Proven lean: Yes at 18¢ · 0 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$171.6knet rated $
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Proven lean: No at 22¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$134.7knet rated $
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseProven lean: Yes at 24¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$124.1knet rated $
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Proven lean: Yes at 36¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$91.4knet rated $
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5Proven lean: Under at 48¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$80.5knet rated $
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Proven lean: No at 96.5¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$57.8knet rated $
UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Proven lean: Merab Dvalishvili at 42¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$41.9knet rated $
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Proven lean: Yes at 6.5¢ · 1 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$37.0knet rated $
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Proven lean: No at 91.5¢ · 4 proven on that side · 4 rated holders
+$27.5knet rated $
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?Proven lean: Yes at 52¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$15.8knet rated $
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Proven lean: No at 68¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$11.2knet rated $
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Proven lean: Yes at 86¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$9,028net rated $
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Proven lean: No at 86¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$7,985net rated $
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Proven lean: Yes at 16¢ · 0 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$7,764net rated $
UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Proven lean: Ramazan Temirov at 48¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$6,055net rated $
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Proven lean: No at 36¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$4,318net rated $
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Proven lean: No at 36¢ · 2 proven on that side · 3 rated holders
+$4,225net rated $
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?Proven lean: No at 40¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$4,192net rated $
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Proven lean: No at 28¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$4,174net rated $
UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)Proven lean: Grant Dawson at 50¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$3,910net rated $
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Proven lean: No at 80¢ · 1 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$2,385net rated $
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?Proven lean: Yes at 46¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$629net rated $
Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Proven lean: Buccaneers at 58¢ · 2 proven on that side · 2 rated holders
+$62net rated $ Top 20 holders per side from Polymarket's public data, refreshed every few minutes. Proven/losing definitions are on the methodology page.