Open data

Check our work

Every number on this site comes from the 10,562 graded whale bets below. Download them, rerun the math, and tell us if we got something wrong.

Graded bets (CSV)Findings + scoreboard (JSON)

What's in the CSV

One row per graded flag, oldest first, updated hourly. Same filters as the scoreboard: entry prices at or below 3¢ or at or above 97¢ and two-sided wallet positions are left out. Rows with eligible=0 were placed in the final hour before a market's start or close and are not scored.

implied_win_prob: the entry price on the whale's side, our baseline
result: called (the whale's side won) or missed
first_ts, last_ts, end_ts: Unix seconds, UTC
source: live (collected as it happened) or backfill (rebuilt from public trade history with the same rules)
Edge for any group = mean(result=called) − mean(implied_win_prob)

Columns: id, venue, kind, condition_id, title, category, outcome, side, price, implied_win_prob, usd, wallet, first_ts, last_ts, end_ts, result, eligible, source

License

CC BY 4.0. Use it for anything; credit "WhaleGrader" with a link. The underlying trades are public Polymarket data. Not financial advice.