Glossary

What the terms mean

Every word on WhaleGrader, in plain English. Tap a ? anywhere on the site to land here.

Grades

Pending: The market hasn't settled yet, so we don't know who was right. Once it settles, we grade the flag called or missed. Most sports markets settle within hours of the game; elections and long-dated markets can take weeks.
Called: The whale's side won. They bought the outcome that happened (or sold the one that didn't).
Missed: The whale's side lost.
Excluded / not scored: We show the trade but don't count it toward any score. Reasons: it happened after the market closed (a settlement trade, not a prediction), it was placed in the last hour before the start or close, or the price was so close to 0¢ or 100¢ that there was nothing left to predict.
Graded: A flag whose market has settled and that counts toward the score, so it's either called or missed.

¢ prices (e.g. 62¢): Prediction-market shares pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if not. A price of 62¢ means the market thinks there's about a 62% chance it happens.
Implied odds: The chance the market gave an outcome at the moment of the trade, read straight from the price. A buy at 80¢ implies 80%.
American odds (−471, +150): The sportsbook way of writing the same chance. A minus number is the favourite (bet that much to win $100); a plus number is the underdog (win that much on a $100 bet). We show both so you can compare markets to the books.
pts (points): Percentage points. If a price goes from 44¢ to 51¢, that's +7 pts. Edge is also shown in pts.
Odds move: A big swing in a market's price over 24 hours, flagged even if we can't see a single whale behind it.

Edge: How much better than the price a whale or group did. If a wallet's bets implied a 60% win rate and they actually won 65%, their edge is +5 pts. Positive means they beat the market; negative means they did worse than just trusting the price.
Expected: How many bets a wallet should have won just from the prices it paid. We compare that to how many it actually called.
Proven wallet: A wallet with enough graded bets and an edge clearly above zero (more than twice its margin of error). Small samples never count as proven.
Losing wallet: The opposite: enough graded bets and an edge clearly below zero.
Scoreboard: Our own public record: every graded flag, misses included, so you can see whether following whales would actually have helped.

Flag: A trade or price move big enough for us to log: a $10k+ Polymarket bet, a large Kalshi trade, or a big odds move.
HIGH / MED / LOW: How unusual a flag is, based on size versus the wallet's normal bets, how new the wallet is, and whether proven wallets are involved. It's not a prediction of who wins.
New / fresh wallet: A wallet with little or no Polymarket history before this trade.
Market maker ("farmer"): A wallet that places 20 or more $10k+ trades in the same market, usually providing liquidity on both sides rather than making a call. We exclude these from grades.
Venue: Where the trade happened: Polymarket or Kalshi. Scores are kept for each one separately.
Smart gap: For an open market, how lopsided the money of rated wallets is among its current biggest holders: proven-wallet money on one side, minus proven money on the other side and losing-record money on the same side. It needs at least 2 rated wallets, and the price may already reflect it. See the Smart gap page.

Follow: Save a market or wallet so its new flags appear in My alerts.
Alert rule: A condition such as "any whale trade over $50k" or "odds move 10+ pts". When a new flag matches, it lands in My alerts (and in your email digest if it's on).

Data only, not advice. For the full math see Methodology; for worked examples see How to use it.