Wallets · consistently wrong
Whales to fade
8 wallets have 20+ graded $10k+ bets and lost to the price by more than chance would explain (edge plus two standard errors still below zero). Big money, poor record.
What this means. When one of these wallets is on a side, the money there has a bad record behind it. That's a reason for extra caution on that side, not a signal to bet the other way: past losers can improve, and the other side still has to be priced right. Information, not advice.
Their open bets
The list
| Wallet | Called | Implied | Edge | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sleepy-panda | 3/24 | 10.1 | -29.7 pts ±9.5 | -34.6 pts |
| gransaaa | 8/30 | 14.9 | -23.0 pts ±9.1 | -20.6 pts |
| denizz | 7/24 | 12.2 | -21.7 pts ±8.7 | +0.9 pts |
| SwissMiss | 22/33 | 27.8 | -17.7 pts ±6.0 | -18.9 pts |
| surfandturf | 10/28 | 15.4 | -19.3 pts ±8.6 | -19.0 pts |
| aenews2 | 12/20 | 15.6 | -17.8 pts ±7.6 | -15.3 pts |
| mooseborzoi | 28/55 | 36.8 | -16.0 pts ±6.0 | +4.6 pts |
| suntori | 10/26 | 14.7 | -18.2 pts ±8.7 | -11.7 pts |
Same grading as the leaderboard. Edge = share of bets won minus share the entry prices implied.