denizz

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 24. The prices it paid implied about 12.2 wins, so it did -21.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$87.3kNo · avg 77¢ → 94.5¢ · $465.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$29.3kNo · avg 74¢ → 82¢ · $301.9k Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?+$16.8kNo · avg 85¢ → 95.5¢ · $153.7k US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?+$13.0kNo · avg 76¢ → 96.6¢ · $62.2k Nothing Ever Happens: 2026+$4,448Yes · avg 66¢ → 80¢ · $26.5k Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?+$8,011Yes · avg 51¢ → 75¢ · $25.2k Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?+$3,256No · avg 75¢ → 95¢ · $15.3k Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?+$6,480No · avg 41¢ → 84¢ · $12.7k

Price-adjusted edge

-21.7 pts

Called / graded

7/24

Expected from price

12.2

Flagged volume

$3.77M

Sample size24 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.7 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$329k

24 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? at 30¢) and the edge is -25.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 12% · n=3

20–40¢

14% vs 28% · n=7

40–60¢

0% vs 53% · n=3

60–80¢

38% vs 71% · n=8

80–100¢

100% vs 89% · n=3

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$2.45M

Last 30 days −$12.6k · $99.85M volume · 72,240 trades · since Sep 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 69¢	$10.4k	69%	79d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$17.3k	96%	82d ago	called
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$13.6k	53%	83d ago	excluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢	$12.7k	30%	85d ago	called
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$10.7k	74%	108d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$91.1k 4.3× usual	82%	108d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 24¢	$48.6k 2.3× usual	24%	121d ago	missed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	HIGH BUY No @ 74¢	$416.1k 19.5× usual	74%	122d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$46.2k 2.2× usual	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$61.6k 2.9× usual	67%	132d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$60.4k 2.8× usual	1%	132d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 6.1¢	$15.7k	94%	148d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 15¢	$35.1k	15%	150d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 17¢	$89.3k 4.2× usual	83%	150d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢	$97.4k 4.6× usual	3%	150d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$22.9k	16%	152d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 9.8¢	$24.1k	10%	152d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 24¢	$62.7k 2.9× usual	24%	153d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$19.7k	11%	153d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢	$13.0k	25%	154d ago	missed
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$15.5k	44%	154d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 14¢	$40.7k	86%	154d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢	$12.4k	18%	155d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢	$34.3k	91%	156d ago	called
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 35¢	$27.3k	35%	166d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$21.9k	80%	166d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$12.5k	79%	166d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 31¢	$20.8k	69%	170d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 30¢	$39.8k	30%	170d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$14.6k	40%	170d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$10.9k	60%	171d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$64.9k 3.0× usual	80%	175d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢	$51.3k 2.4× usual	3%	179d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 29¢	$64.4k 3.0× usual	29%	179d ago	missed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	MED BUY No @ 94.4¢	$47.2k 2.2× usual	94%	182d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$64.3k 3.0× usual	93%	182d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢	$14.7k	7%	183d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$55.2k 2.6× usual	94%	186d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.9¢	$41.0k	97%	186d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 28¢	$16.3k	72%	186d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$25.6k	89%	186d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢	$29.0k	84%	186d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 16¢	$23.3k	16%	186d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$10.6k	92%	186d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$47.3k 2.2× usual	80%	188d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 34¢	$24.2k	34%	189d ago	missed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 71¢	$14.9k	29%	190d ago	missed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$43.0k 2.0× usual	70%	190d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$12.9k	64%	190d ago	missed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	MED SELL No @ 74¢	$36.3k	26%	190d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$15.6k	13%	190d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$13.9k	13%	190d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢	$15.3k	25%	191d ago	missed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 70¢	$10.5k	30%	191d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢	$11.4k	22%	191d ago	missed
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.4¢	$30.1k	95%	192d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 93.5¢	$27.9k	6%	192d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢	$12.1k	20%	192d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 92.7¢	$26.7k	7%	193d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢	$21.8k	39%	193d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢	$11.8k	48%	194d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$23.9k	8%	194d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢	$19.6k	49%	194d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW BUY No @ 57¢	$68.3k 3.2× usual	57%	195d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$11.1k	88%	195d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 71¢	$55.4k 2.6× usual	29%	195d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢	$19.5k	32%	195d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢	$10.1k	30%	195d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢	$11.4k	22%	195d ago	missed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	MED BUY No @ 79¢	$39.9k	79%	196d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢	$18.8k	66%	196d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢	$53.0k 2.5× usual	49%	198d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	MED SELL Yes @ 30¢	$38.6k	70%	199d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	MED SELL Yes @ 49¢	$122.7k 5.8× usual	51%	199d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢	$34.0k	48%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢	$55.2k 2.6× usual	1%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$102.9k 4.8× usual	0%	200d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢	$15.0k	95%	200d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢	$11.5k	12%	200d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$22.1k	0%	200d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$12.4k	97%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$24.9k	0%	201d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$55.4k 2.6× usual	0%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 2.3× usual	0%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$69.9k 3.3× usual	0%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$10.2k	54%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 68¢	$29.6k	68%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$25.3k	43%	244d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$33.1k	67%	244d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$11.4k	82%	255d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 78¢	$14.4k	22%	263d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 55¢	$13.3k	55%	264d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$13.6k	98%	265d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$13.5k	96%	266d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢	$12.8k	54%	271d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$10.3k	74%	273d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$26.3k	85%	274d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢	$13.9k	27%	274d ago	missed
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢	$29.7k	2%	283d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$16.9k	75%	283d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢	$10.0k	61%	284d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$31.9k	90%	290d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$11.4k	78%	290d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$13.1k	76%	292d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$14.3k	87%	292d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$20.5k	84%	294d ago	called
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢	$35.5k	63%	294d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢	$14.3k	29%	479d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢	$15.0k	29%	479d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$18.5k	71%	480d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢	$12.0k	32%	618d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$12.0k	68%	618d ago	missed

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	21	6	11.0	-23.7 pts
Sports	3	1	1.2	-8.1 pts

denizz

Current positions

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record