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What this means. A wallet put $26.7k on not No, at a price that gave it a 7% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$26.7k
SELL No @ 92.7¢ · 28,824 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hOther
What happened
Wallet denizz took No (sell) for $26.7k at an average 92.7¢. At that price the market implied a 7% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $26.7k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 92.7¢
- Implied odds
- 7.3%
- Size
- $26.7k
- Placed
- Apr 14, 15:54 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- denizz
- Tx
- 0x4dffdf4c…
This wallet's graded record
7/24-21.7 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -7 ptsNo price · entry 92.7¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $172.5k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $67.2k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $16.7k | excluded |