← Wallets
−$31No · avg 49¢ → 48¢ · $5,719+$643No · avg 67¢ → 96.3¢ · $2,143+$170Yes · avg 34¢ → 38¢ · $1,670+$34No · avg 51¢ → 52¢ · $1,534−$27Yes · avg 28¢ → 28¢ · $1,473 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$131Yes · avg 13¢ → 10¢ · $569+$89Yes · avg 30¢ → 36¢ · $489−$277Yes · avg 11¢ → 6.8¢ · $473
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$88.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.0k
Last 30 days −$912 · $2.26M volume · 875 trades · since Jul 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$51.6k
Open P&L · 78 positions
−$30.2k
Closed-position win rate
49%
206 closed
Wallet age · markets
475d
314 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 86¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $11.0k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 78¢ | $17.1k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $10.1k | called |
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