Flags · fresh-wallet clusters

Fresh-wallet clusters

Two or more fresh wallets (first seen in the last 14 days, or active in 5 markets or fewer) each betting $10k+ on the same side of one market within an hour. This is the pattern people mean by "insider" or "split-wallet" money.

What this means. A cluster is a coincidence of timing, not proof the wallets are linked or know anything. Over the last 30 days, 4 clusters have resolved: they called 2 vs 1.5 the prices implied (+12.1 pts, ±14.8), too few to judge yet. Information, not advice.

Open clusters

No open clusters right now. They're rare: most $10k+ bets come from established wallets.

Wallet freshness comes from each wallet's Polymarket history. Clusters are recomputed every 5 minutes from the graded flag feed. See also fresh wallets and whales to fade.

Does an "insider score" work? We tested it.

One point each for: a long shot (under 25¢), a wallet we've flagged only once, a bet of $25k+, and a bet placed within 3 days of the market's end. Then we checked every graded buy flag: did higher scores beat the price?

Score 0 · 10690 bets0.6 pts ± 0.2

Score 1 · 17655 bets-1.2 pts ± 0.3

Score 2 · 12978 bets-2.2 pts ± 0.3

Score 3+ · 863 bets-1.8 pts ± 1.2

Verdict: no. High-score bets haven't beaten the price by more than noise, so we don't put an insider score on flags. Tools that do haven't shown this test. We'll rerun it as more markets resolve.