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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -20.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-20.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$106.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$403
Last 30 days −$15 · $1.29M volume · 450 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,396
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$3,615
Closed-position win rate
47%
90 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
101 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -20.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $25.4k 2.0× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 81¢ | $19.7k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $12.1k | called |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x90134a…