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What this means. A wallet put $12.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 83% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.0k
BUY No @ 83¢ · 14,492 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet jgdbvr took No (buy) for $12.0k at an average 83¢. At that price the market implied a 83% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 83¢ means
83%chance the market gave
−482American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 83¢
- Implied odds
- 82.8%
- Size
- $12.0k
- Placed
- Apr 15, 15:40 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- jgdbvr
- Tx
- 0xada686e1…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-20.9 pts
expected 0.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $172.5k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $67.2k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $16.7k | excluded |