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Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +4.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$132.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 80¢ · $357.8k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$10.5kNo · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $228.2k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$1,259No · avg 93.4¢ → 94.5¢ · $104.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$132.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 20¢ · $92.2k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$2,001No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $44.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$215Yes · avg 79¢ → 78¢ · $19.1k Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?+$770No · avg 92.8¢ → 97.5¢ · $16.2k US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?+$640Yes · avg 91.4¢ → 97.8¢ · $9,780

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

+4.8 pts

Called / graded

4/4

Expected from price

3.8

Flagged volume

$6.86M

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$296.8k

Last 30 days +$292 · $52.86M volume · 19,522 trades · since May 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$13.5k	79%	19h ago	pending
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$15.9k	100%	1d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$23.2k	99%	2d ago	excluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$23.0k	100%	8d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$32.2k	100%	24d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$13.0k	100%	24d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$85.3k 2.2× usual	100%	24d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$149.8k 3.9× usual	100%	32d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$13.5k	100%	33d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢	$162.8k 4.2× usual	99%	33d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$23.8k	98%	33d ago	excluded
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 92.9¢	$27.9k	93%	33d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.6k 2.6× usual	100%	56d ago	excluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$27.3k	98%	73d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$15.0k	100%	81d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$14.1k	100%	81d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$17.3k	99%	84d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$40.2k	100%	84d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$29.7k	99%	90d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$10.5k	99%	90d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$69.9k	100%	94d ago	excluded
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$11.9k	100%	124d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 83¢	$38.6k	83%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$171.2k 4.4× usual	100%	150d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$18.1k	97%	151d ago	called
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$21.0k	98%	152d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$38.4k	97%	152d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$62.7k	100%	170d ago	excluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$93.5k 2.4× usual	100%	173d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$24.6k	100%	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$130.8k 3.4× usual	100%	178d ago	excluded
Will Trump dance today?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	0%	178d ago	excluded
Will Trump dance today?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$37.0k	100%	179d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$17.0k	98%	180d ago	excluded
Will Trump dance today?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$33.7k	99%	180d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$23.4k	99%	182d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$58.1k	100%	182d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$199.6k 5.2× usual	100%	184d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$85.6k 2.2× usual	1%	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$46.0k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$48.6k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$61.3k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$15.2k	98%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢	$42.5k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢	$33.4k	97%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.7¢	$12.6k	97%	185d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$51.8k	100%	186d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$67.2k	100%	191d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$404.4k 10.5× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$654.7k 17.0× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$49.7k	99%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$10.0k	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$239.8k 6.2× usual	0%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$81.8k 2.1× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$89.9k 2.3× usual	0%	201d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$88.2k 2.3× usual	100%	201d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$12.5k	100%	202d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$11.5k	99%	204d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$28.8k	99%	213d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢	$47.1k	94%	222d ago	called
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$28.3k	100%	234d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$1.01M 26.2× usual	100%	242d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$339.5k 8.8× usual	100%	251d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$200.8k 5.2× usual	100%	252d ago	excluded
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$18.3k	100%	259d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$106.8k 2.8× usual	100%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$32.9k	100%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$75.0k	100%	265d ago	excluded
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$57.3k	100%	271d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$21.3k	100%	273d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$186.2k 4.8× usual	100%	294d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$26.9k	100%	297d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$19.3k	96%	309d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$352.6k 9.1× usual	100%	330d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$86.4k 2.2× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$162.0k 4.2× usual	99%	331d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$12.7k	99%	332d ago	excluded

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	1	0.9	+7.1 pts
Other	3	3	2.9	+4.0 pts

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