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What this means. A wallet put $55.4k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 29% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$55.4k
SELL Yes @ 71¢ · 77,625 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.6× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet denizz took Yes (sell) for $55.4k at an average 71¢. At that price the market implied a 29% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $55.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 71¢
- Implied odds
- 28.7%
- As American odds
- +249 no vig
- Size
- $55.4k
- Placed
- Apr 11, 21:34 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 14:05 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- denizz
- Tx
- 0xe97574e0…
This wallet's graded record
7/24-21.7 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -29 ptsYes price · entry 71¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $61.3k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.8¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $14.3k | missed |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ | $15.0k | missed |