ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 28. The prices it paid implied about 12.4 wins, so it did +2.3 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Without its single best bet: -0.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$44.2kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $119.2k Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?+$1,649No · avg 82¢ → 86¢ · $39.7k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$44.2kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $30.8k Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$265No · avg 96.5¢ → 97.4¢ · $29.2k Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?+$2,287No · avg 83¢ → 91.5¢ · $25.0k Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?−$6,376Yes · avg 87¢ → 68¢ · $23.5k Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?+$1,766No · avg 81¢ → 89¢ · $20.2k Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?+$7,492No · avg 56¢ → 91.5¢ · $19.2k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

+2.3 pts

Called / graded

13/28

Expected from price

12.4

Flagged volume

$12.94M

Sample size28 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$190k

28 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 35¢) and the edge is -0.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 8% · n=11

20–40¢

40% vs 32% · n=5

40–60¢

100% vs 51% · n=3

80–100¢

89% vs 92% · n=9

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$271.7k

Last 30 days −$42.6k · $524.41M volume · 1,400,569 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	9	5	2.9	+23.2 pts
Other	18	8	9.3	-7.3 pts
Sports	1	0	0.1	-13.4 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	LOW BUY No @ 38¢	$11.4k	38%	2d ago	pending
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	MED SELL Yes @ 62¢	$34.3k	38%	2d ago	pending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢	$15.3k	56%	53d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 57¢	$39.0k	57%	54d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$11.7k	40%	75d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 37¢	$62.9k 2.3× usual	37%	75d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 35¢	$28.6k	35%	75d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$44.7k	99%	78d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$44.6k	99%	78d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	MED BUY No @ 95.5¢	$34.5k	95%	81d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$45.2k	19%	81d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$60.0k 2.2× usual	19%	81d ago	missed
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$18.0k	99%	84d ago	excluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96¢	$54.7k 2.0× usual	96%	86d ago	called
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$228.8k 8.5× usual	100%	95d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 77¢	$24.0k	23%	108d ago	missed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	MED SELL No @ 90.9¢	$14.0k	9%	108d ago	excluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$169.9k 6.3× usual	85%	108d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	MED BUY No @ 91.8¢	$114.0k 4.2× usual	92%	109d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$45.5k	98%	119d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 48¢	$13.6k	52%	119d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL No @ 85¢	$18.2k	15%	120d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL No @ 92.4¢	$11.3k	8%	121d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 35¢	$15.7k	65%	121d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL No @ 85¢	$19.6k	15%	121d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 38¢	$11.0k	62%	121d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	HIGH SELL No @ 90¢	$59.3k 2.2× usual	10%	121d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$73.1k 2.7× usual	98%	122d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY No @ 96¢	$35.9k	96%	123d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	MED BUY No @ 58¢	$31.9k	58%	125d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	MED SELL No @ 53¢	$29.9k	47%	125d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	HIGH SELL No @ 92.2¢	$167.8k 6.2× usual	8%	125d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$105.6k 3.9× usual	94%	125d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 29¢	$29.8k	29%	127d ago	missed
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 7.4× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$399.6k 14.9× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$11.4k	100%	129d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$199.2k 7.4× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$126.7k 4.7× usual	99%	129d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	HIGH SELL No @ 71¢	$74.8k 2.8× usual	29%	131d ago	missed

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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