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What this means. A wallet put $13.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 27% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.9k
BUY Yes @ 27¢ · 51,813 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet denizz took Yes (buy) for $13.9k at an average 27¢. At that price the market implied a 27% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.9k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 27¢ means
27%chance the market gave
+272American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 27¢
- Implied odds
- 26.9%
- Size
- $13.9k
- Placed
- Jan 23, 14:09 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- denizz
- Tx
- 0xbeb79ce5…
This wallet's graded record
7/24-21.7 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -27 ptsYes price · entry 27¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |