← Wallets
+$559Yes · avg 76¢ → 93.5¢ · $2,985 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +16.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.5 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$195.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$5,967
Last 30 days +$495 · $2.56M volume · 2,282 trades · since Oct 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.1k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$11.1k
Closed-position win rate
57%
215 closed
Wallet age · markets
388d
214 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | +16.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $19.7k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 90¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 93.4¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $13.7k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $13.0k | missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xb866e020d08a3257efd7ea991e56a8bcb8d7977f"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xb866e020d08a3257efd7ea991e56a8bcb8d7977f.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb866e0…