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onekey09

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$31.7kNo · avg 80¢ → 95¢ · $193.8kXi Jinping out before 2027?+$2,872No · avg 93¢ → 96.8¢ · $74.1k
Price-adjusted edge
+7.7 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$5.73M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$95.4k
Last 30 days −$1,271 · $36.27M volume · 22,580 trades · since Oct 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$278.1k
Open P&L · 6 positions
+$16.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
376d
879 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other221.8+7.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $29.0k100% 180d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $42.7k100% 181d agoexcluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $37.2k99% 186d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $55.6k100% 191d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $17.5k100% 192d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $32.1k98% 195d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $29.8k99% 195d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $998.0k
24.6× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $1.04M
25.6× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $499.0k
12.3× usual
100% 202d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $154.3k
3.8× usual
100% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $24.4k99% 206d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $157.8k
3.9× usual
100% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.6¢ $14.8k99% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $12.0k99% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $169.8k
4.2× usual
100% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $113.1k
2.8× usual
99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $99.7k
2.5× usual
100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $59.8k100% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k100% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $122.9k
3.0× usual
100% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $51.1k100% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $11.8k100% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $19.8k99% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $243.8k
6.0× usual
98% 257d agoexcluded
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $146.9k
3.6× usual
100% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $149.8k
3.7× usual
100% 259d agoexcluded
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.0k100% 262d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $40.6k93% 262d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $22.3k90% 263d agocalled
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $34.1k100% 263d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $20.2k87% 265d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $98.4k
2.4× usual
100% 265d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $29.7k100% 265d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.3k100% 265d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $17.1k100% 265d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $49.9k98% 268d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $13.9k99% 269d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $57.6k95% 276d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $10.4k98% 276d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $369.6k
9.1× usual
100% 294d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.8k0% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $99.5k
2.5× usual
100% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k99% 324d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $33.1k99% 325d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $19.8k99% 327d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $29.7k99% 327d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $93.0k
2.3× usual
100% 353d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $170.9k
4.2× usual
94% 368d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $65.3k92% 371d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$29.0k
LOW onekey09 · 180d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$42.7k
LOW onekey09 · 181d ago
Will Trump visit China by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$37.2k
LOW onekey09 · 186d ago
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$55.6k
LOW onekey09 · 191d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$17.5k
LOW onekey09 · 192d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98¢$32.1k
LOW onekey09 · 195d ago
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$29.8k
LOW onekey09 · 195d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$998.0k
LOW onekey09 · 198d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$1.04M
LOW onekey09 · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$499.0k
LOW onekey09 · 202d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$154.3k
LOW onekey09 · 206d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$24.4k
LOW onekey09 · 206d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$157.8k
LOW onekey09 · 237d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.6¢$14.8k
LOW onekey09 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$12.0k
LOW onekey09 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$169.8k
LOW onekey09 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$113.1k
LOW onekey09 · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW onekey09 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$99.7k
LOW onekey09 · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$59.8k
LOW onekey09 · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$19.9k
LOW onekey09 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$122.9k
LOW onekey09 · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$51.1k
LOW onekey09 · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$11.8k
LOW onekey09 · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$19.8k
LOW onekey09 · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$243.8k
LOW onekey09 · 257d ago
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$146.9k
LOW onekey09 · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$149.8k
LOW onekey09 · 259d ago
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$10.0k
LOW onekey09 · 262d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed
BUY No @ 93¢$40.6k
LOW onekey09 · 262d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 90¢$22.3k
LOW onekey09 · 263d ago
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$34.1k
LOW onekey09 · 263d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed
BUY No @ 87¢$20.2k
LOW onekey09 · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$98.4k
LOW onekey09 · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$29.7k
LOW onekey09 · 265d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$12.3k
LOW onekey09 · 265d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$17.1k
LOW onekey09 · 265d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$49.9k
LOW onekey09 · 268d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$13.9k
LOW onekey09 · 269d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called
BUY No @ 95¢$57.6k
LOW onekey09 · 276d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$10.4k
LOW onekey09 · 276d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$369.6k
LOW onekey09 · 294d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.8k
LOW onekey09 · 296d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$99.5k
LOW onekey09 · 322d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW onekey09 · 324d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$33.1k
LOW onekey09 · 325d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$19.8k
LOW onekey09 · 327d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$29.7k
LOW onekey09 · 327d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$93.0k
LOW onekey09 · 353d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 94¢$170.9k
MED onekey09 · 368d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 92¢$65.3k
LOW onekey09 · 371d ago

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