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What this means. A wallet put $13.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.5k
BUY No @ 96.3¢ · 13,995 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet denizz took No (buy) for $13.5k at an average 96.3¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2631American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 96.3¢
- Implied odds
- 96.3%
- Size
- $13.5k
- Placed
- Jan 31, 13:55 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- denizz
- Tx
- 0xa1d353a4…
This wallet's graded record
7/24-21.7 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |