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What this means. A wallet put $15.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 29% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -21.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.0k
SELL Yes @ 71¢ · 21,334 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet denizz took Yes (sell) for $15.0k at an average 71¢. At that price the market implied a 29% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 71¢
- Implied odds
- 29.5%
- Size
- $15.0k
- Placed
- Jul 02, 13:37 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 04, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- denizz
- Tx
- 0x05fc879e…
This wallet's graded record
7/24-21.7 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $163.4k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $63.6k | excluded |