Gmoas

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?+$330No · avg 20¢ → 38¢ · $676 Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?+$170No · avg 45¢ → 87¢ · $355 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$488Yes · avg 25¢ → 5.5¢ · $138 Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 19-25?−$88Yes · avg 3.5¢ → 2.1¢ · $137

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$328.3k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$6,111

Last 30 days +$480 · $2.00M volume · 833 trades · since Feb 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$11.7k

Open P&L · 12 positions

−$3,030

Closed-position win rate

45%

71 closed

Wallet age · markets

622d

80 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢	$11.0k	63%	44d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢	$14.7k	55%	45d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢	$11.9k	41%	54d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.9¢	$46.9k	97%	207d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$30.3k	0%	207d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$30.0k	99%	216d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$163.4k 6.5× usual	0%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢	$20.0k	95%	358d ago	called

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called

SELL Yes @ 37¢$11.0k

LOW Gmoas · 44d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called

SELL Yes @ 45¢$14.7k

LOW Gmoas · 45d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 41¢$11.9k

LOW Gmoas · 54d ago

US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 96.9¢$46.9k

MED Gmoas · 207d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$30.3k

LOW Gmoas · 207d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$30.0k

LOW Gmoas · 216d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$163.4k

LOW Gmoas · 353d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 95.2¢$20.0k

LOW Gmoas · 358d ago

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