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SwissMiss

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 22 of 33. The prices it paid implied about 27.8 wins, so it did -17.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -17.7 pts vs the price over 33 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.7 pts
Called / graded
22/33
Expected from price
27.8
Flagged volume
$4.40M
Sample size33 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$598k
33 graded bets in the order they resolved · 22 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$609k$0$58k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US government shutdown Saturday? at 47¢) and the edge is -19.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 47% · n=1
60–80¢
38% vs 73% · n=8
80–100¢
75% vs 90% · n=24
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$171.6k
Last 30 days +$2,409 · $88.54M volume · 35,955 trades · since Jul 04, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$14.83M
Open P&L · 12 positions
+$14.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
842d
1054 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other291824.2-21.3 pts
Politics443.6+8.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $299.4k
11.7× usual
100% 201d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $10.9k73% 201d agocalled
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $149.8k
5.9× usual
100% 202d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $12.0k69% 202d agocalled
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 203d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $13.8k86% 203d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $18.8k94% 204d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $47.8k100% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $74.9k
2.9× usual
100% 207d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $15.2k100% 207d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $27.5k98% 222d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $15.0k75% 225d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $20.2k81% 234d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢ $12.0k91% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $10.8k72% 240d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $16.6k83% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $130.4k
5.1× usual
98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 63¢ $36.3k63% 241d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 81¢ $121.5k
4.8× usual
81% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $17.5k79% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $10.3k98% 242d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $12.0k90% 242d agocalled
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $20.8k86% 243d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $41.9k99% 243d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $17.9k78% 244d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $35.1k87% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.5¢ $17.1k93% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $34.5k98% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $20.3k98% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $39.5k100% 247d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $19.1k88% 247d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $26.2k98% 247d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $98.9k
3.9× usual
80% 247d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $33.6k99% 247d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 94.6¢ $17.5k95% 247d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 76¢ $40.9k76% 247d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 77¢ $147.6k
5.8× usual
77% 247d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $80.0k
3.1× usual
99% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ $21.9k95% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 64¢ $39.0k64% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $32.1k95% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $17.4k98% 247d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $37.8k1% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $17.4k93% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $38.4k96% 249d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $77.4k
3.0× usual
86% 250d agomissed
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $23.7k99% 251d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $34.0k85% 251d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $24.4k97% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $54.2k
2.1× usual
97% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $268.1k
10.5× usual
98% 257d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $20.0k90% 261d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $18.3k100% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $15.1k100% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $99.8k
3.9× usual
100% 263d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 76¢ $202.7k
7.9× usual
76% 264d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $18.8k100% 265d agoexcluded
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)LOW SELL Ruffy @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $53.2k
2.1× usual
96% 266d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $57.6k
2.3× usual
86% 266d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $24.2k89% 267d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ $10.8k47% 267d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $17.7k100% 270d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $80.5k
3.2× usual
97% 271d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $38.3k97% 271d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $33.5k97% 273d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $10.2k92% 280d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $10.8k81% 284d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $25.2k97% 286d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ $61.8k
2.4× usual
97% 291d agocalled
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $265.0k
10.4× usual
100% 293d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $52.1k
2.0× usual
97% 307d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?MED SELL No @ 96.4¢ $25.5k4% 308d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $28.4k1% 308d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $19.8k1% 308d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 308d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ $10.6k97% 311d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ $77.4k
3.0× usual
92% 313d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $17.3k97% 313d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $18.2k91% 330d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $17.2k85% 331d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $20.5k82% 332d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $13.2k88% 333d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $18.6k93% 338d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $25.9k90% 338d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 97¢ $129.5k
5.1× usual
97% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 91.7¢ $51.4k
2.0× usual
92% 354d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ $54.1k
2.1× usual
95% 354d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 88¢ $35.8k88% 359d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $33.1k90% 360d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $12.8k85% 368d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $10.1k84% 368d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $41.5k83% 369d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 62¢ $23.4k62% 431d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?MED BUY No @ 68¢ $78.1k
3.1× usual
68% 434d agocalled

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