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What this means. A wallet put $61.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 97% chance. It won. This wallet has a losing record: -17.7 pts vs the price over 33 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$61.8k
BUY No @ 96.5¢ · 64,027 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet SwissMiss took No (buy) for $61.8k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied a 97% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $61.8k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 97¢ means
97%chance the market gave
−2790American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 96.5¢
- Implied odds
- 96.5%
- Size
- $61.8k
- Placed
- Jan 05, 14:21 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SwissMiss
- Tx
- 0x8e477555…
This wallet's graded record
22/33-17.7 pts
expected 27.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $53.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |