← Wallets
+$58.5kNo · avg 62¢ → 93.5¢ · $171.2k+$29.7kNo · avg 60¢ → 94.5¢ · $82.3k+$12.6kNo · avg 77¢ → 97.2¢ · $60.4k+$4,284Yes · avg 73¢ → 91.5¢ · $21.5k+$2,331No · avg 77¢ → 91.5¢ · $14.7k−$7,350Yes · avg 17¢ → 9.7¢ · $9,650+$2,506No · avg 70¢ → 95.2¢ · $9,466+$298No · avg 69¢ → 95.8¢ · $1,054
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did -47.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-47.5 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$893.3k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$82k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? at 95¢) and the edge is -56.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
0% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 93% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$411.7k
Last 30 days +$10.8k · $15.15M volume · 15,876 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$511.6k
Open P&L · 26 positions
−$108.2k
Closed-position win rate
66%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
384 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 0 | 3.5 | -87.0 pts |
| Politics | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +5.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ | $25.7k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $49.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $38.0k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $12.1k | missed |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $11.3k | missed |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 95¢ | $47.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 95¢ | $47.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $38.9k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 96.1¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 96.1¢ | $28.8k | missed |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ | $43.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $27.4k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ | $24.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 96.1¢ | $33.6k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.7¢ | $18.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ | $19.3k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $35.6k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $33.0k | missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xdfe3fe…