← Wallets
−$4No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $82+$4No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +21.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +19.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+21.5 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$923.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$20k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 70¢) and the edge is +19.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 87% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$198.7k
Last 30 days −$2 · $35.64M volume · 24,868 trades · since May 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$473.3k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$346
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
889d
1091 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 5 | 3.9 | +21.5 pts |
History
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 99.4¢$15.7k
LOW MisTKy3 · 144d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excludedSELL No @ 99.9¢$10.3k
LOW MisTKy3 · 265d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excludedSELL No @ 99.8¢$40.0k
LOW MisTKy3 · 294d ago
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