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noreasapa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$57.6kYes · avg 22¢ → 94.5¢ · $75.6k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$14.4kYes · avg 22¢ → 4.5¢ · $3,600Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?+$9No · avg 95.4¢ → 97.2¢ · $486
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.36M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$172.2k
Last 30 days +$4,398 · $80.68M volume · 77,646 trades · since Oct 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$607.4k
Open P&L · 9 positions
+$29.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
752d
9008 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 24d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $22.5k0% 24d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k100% 26d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsLOW BUY FURIA @ 99.9¢ $33.9k100% 64d agoexcluded
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $12.2k100% 116d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $45.0k0% 128d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $159.5k
5.4× usual
100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $19.9k0% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $39.9k100% 129d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerLOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 98.9¢ $128.5k
4.3× usual
99% 133d agoexcluded
Trump kiss by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $59.9k
2.0× usual
0% 155d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $29.7k0% 171d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $69.9k
2.4× usual
0% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $54.9k0% 179d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $29.9k0% 181d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group ALOW BUY G2 @ 99.9¢ $45.0k100% 194d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $99.8k
3.4× usual
0% 199d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $41.5k0% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 234d agoexcluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.7k100% 237d agoexcluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $139.9k
4.7× usual
0% 238d agoexcluded
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?LOW BUY Down @ 99.9¢ $30.0k100% 260d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $28.0k100% 262d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $23.4k100% 265d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $24.9k0% 270d agoexcluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 291d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k99% 320d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k100% 331d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.9k100% 353d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW noreasapa · 24d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$22.5k
LOW noreasapa · 24d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$15.0k
LOW noreasapa · 26d ago
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsexcluded
BUY FURIA @ 99.9¢$33.9k
LOW noreasapa · 64d ago
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$12.2k
LOW noreasapa · 116d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$45.0k
LOW noreasapa · 128d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$159.5k
LOW noreasapa · 128d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$19.9k
LOW noreasapa · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$39.9k
LOW noreasapa · 129d ago
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerexcluded
BUY Aurora Gaming @ 98.9¢$128.5k
LOW noreasapa · 133d ago
Trump kiss by May 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$59.9k
LOW noreasapa · 155d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$29.7k
LOW noreasapa · 171d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$19.9k
LOW noreasapa · 176d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$69.9k
LOW noreasapa · 177d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$19.9k
LOW noreasapa · 177d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$54.9k
LOW noreasapa · 179d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$29.9k
LOW noreasapa · 181d ago
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Aexcluded
BUY G2 @ 99.9¢$45.0k
LOW noreasapa · 194d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$99.8k
LOW noreasapa · 199d ago
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$41.5k
LOW noreasapa · 234d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW noreasapa · 234d ago
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.7k
LOW noreasapa · 237d ago
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$139.9k
LOW noreasapa · 238d ago
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?excluded
BUY Down @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW noreasapa · 260d ago
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$28.0k
LOW noreasapa · 262d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$23.4k
LOW noreasapa · 265d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW noreasapa · 270d ago
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW noreasapa · 291d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW noreasapa · 320d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW noreasapa · 331d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW noreasapa · 353d ago

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