Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$674
Return on staked
-20.4%
Bets
22/33 won
Edge vs price
-17.7 pts ±6.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +6.0 pts (15/16). Newer half: -39.9 pts (7/17). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 28, 08:57 EDTApr 05, 06:55 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 73¢ | called | 202d ago |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 69¢ | called | 202d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 86¢ | called | 203d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 94¢ | missed | 204d ago |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | 75¢ | called | 225d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 81¢ | called | 235d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | 72¢ | missed | 240d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | 63¢ | missed | 242d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 90¢ | called | 243d ago |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | 86¢ | missed | 243d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 78¢ | missed | 244d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 88¢ | called | 247d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 80¢ | missed | 247d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | 95¢ | missed | 247d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 77¢ | missed | 247d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.