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What this means. A wallet put $36.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 63% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -17.7 pts vs the price over 33 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$36.3k
BUY No @ 63¢ · 57,659 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet SwissMiss took No (buy) for $36.3k at an average 63¢. At that price the market implied a 63% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $36.3k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 63¢ means
63%chance the market gave
−170American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 63¢
- Implied odds
- 63.0%
- Size
- $36.3k
- Placed
- Feb 24, 10:32 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:38 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SwissMiss
- Tx
- 0x303c26b8…
This wallet's graded record
22/33-17.7 pts
expected 27.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -63 ptsNo price · entry 63¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $51.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ | $40.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $10.7k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $10.8k | missed |