ScottyNooo

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 45 of 46. The prices it paid implied about 38.1 wins, so it did +15.0 pts better than the market expected. That's a proven record: +15.0 pts vs the price over 46 bets. Without its single best bet: +13.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$63.4kYes · avg 55¢ → 79¢ · $209.2k Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?−$12.9kYes · avg 59¢ → 52¢ · $95.3k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$6,681No · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $79.5k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,668Yes · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $36.7k 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$10.8kYes · avg 47¢ → 66¢ · $36.3k · 2 proven with, 0 against Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?+$4,947Yes · avg 59¢ → 69¢ · $33.4k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$6,483Yes · avg 74¢ → 93.5¢ · $31.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?−$3,797No · avg 59¢ → 52¢ · $29.5k

Price-adjusted edge

+15.0 pts

Called / graded

45/46

Expected from price

38.1

Flagged volume

$8.26M

Sample size46 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±5.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$208k

46 graded bets in the order they resolved · 45 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 14¢) and the edge is +13.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

100% vs 14% · n=1

20–40¢

100% vs 30% · n=1

40–60¢

100% vs 53% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 73% · n=9

80–100¢

97% vs 90% · n=34

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$955.5k

Last 30 days −$161.6k · $147.85M volume · 303,489 trades · since May 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	35	34	28.5	+15.6 pts
Politics	8	8	7.1	+11.0 pts
Economy	3	3	2.4	+19.0 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	MED BUY No @ 94.6¢	$70.5k 3.3× usual	95%	19d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 91.2¢	$66.3k 3.1× usual	91%	33d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢	$12.6k	91%	33d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$18.0k	81%	33d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$30.3k	89%	37d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$99.7k 4.6× usual	100%	40d ago	excluded
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	MED BUY Yes @ 95¢	$39.5k	95%	46d ago	called
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$34.1k	100%	54d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$21.1k	71%	66d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$14.2k	75%	87d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$21.6k	71%	88d ago	called
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$17.8k	70%	88d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$12.6k	77%	92d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢	$51.8k 2.4× usual	95%	100d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$221.8k 10.3× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢	$31.7k	97%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢	$10.8k	55%	131d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$18.0k	98%	136d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$57.4k 2.7× usual	90%	137d ago	excluded
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$66.6k 3.1× usual	100%	140d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$45.3k 2.1× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 14¢	$14.2k	14%	143d ago	called
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$21.7k	99%	147d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$36.4k	87%	148d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢	$24.3k	3%	149d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$22.9k	0%	149d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$27.5k	76%	150d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 97.1¢	$28.9k	3%	150d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$41.9k	85%	151d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$59.8k 2.8× usual	91%	151d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 29¢	$25.5k	29%	152d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$22.2k	100%	154d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 27¢	$20.2k	27%	154d ago	missed
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$39.6k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$15.0k	100%	161d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$29.9k	100%	162d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢	$21.9k	99%	164d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$11.0k	99%	165d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$11.1k	100%	165d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$16.6k	98%	165d ago	excluded

ScottyNooo

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