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What this means. A wallet put $12.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 44% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +15.0 pts vs the price over 46 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.3k
BUY Yes @ 44¢ · 28,105 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ScottyNooo took Yes (buy) for $12.3k at an average 44¢. At that price the market implied a 44% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.3k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 44¢ means
44%chance the market gave
+129American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 44¢
- Implied odds
- 43.7%
- Size
- $12.3k
- Placed
- Apr 17, 09:29 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ScottyNooo
- Tx
- 0x72dce991…
This wallet's graded record
45/46+15.0 pts
expected 38.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -44 ptsYes price · entry 44¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |