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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -26.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$198.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$19.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $787.8k volume · 104 trades · since Apr 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$17.1k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$36.2k
Closed-position win rate
92%
13 closed
Wallet age · markets
189d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -26.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 27¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $31.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93.3¢ | $20.3k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $18.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
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