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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 10.5 wins, so it did +16.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +12.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.9 pts
Called / graded
13/15
Expected from price
10.5
Flagged volume
$1.14M
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$82k15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? at 18¢) and the edge is +12.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 18% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 47% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$55.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.41M volume · 810 trades · since Oct 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$58.1k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$113.3k
Closed-position win rate
59%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
380d
78 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 15 | 13 | 10.5 | +16.9 pts |
History
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