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What this means. A wallet put $70.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +15.0 pts vs the price over 46 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$70.5k
BUY No @ 94.6¢ · 74,512 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite4 fills in 1hProven wallet3.3× this wallet's usual betPolitics
What happened
Wallet ScottyNooo took No (buy) for $70.5k at an average 94.6¢. At that price the market implied a 95% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $70.5k+1
4 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 95¢ means
95%chance the market gave
−1738American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 94.6¢
- Implied odds
- 94.6%
- Size
- $70.5k
- Placed
- Oct 04, 17:54 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:40 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ScottyNooo
- Tx
- 0x1ebf7a50…
This wallet's graded record
45/46+15.0 pts
expected 38.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +5 ptsNo price · entry 94.6¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 94.4¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $38.4k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $17.5k | missed |