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flawfence

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did +23.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+23.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$699.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$574.4k
Last 30 days +$283.4k · $29.53M volume · 32,568 trades · since Apr 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 452 closed
+$3.43M
Open P&L · 427 positions
−$2.84M
Closed-position win rate
77%
452 closed
Wallet age · markets
183d
700 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.8+17.2 pts
Other110.8+15.0 pts
Sports110.6+38.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $17.5k69% 2d agopending
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $11.5k83% 19d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $34.2k96% 33d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $33.0k90% 33d agocalled
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $17.3k98% 54d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group BLOW BUY Team Falcons @ 80¢ $80.0k
3.8× usual
80% 57d agoexcluded
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLOW BUY Team Liquid @ 38¢ $39.1k38% 63d agoexcluded
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $15.6k99% 71d agoexcluded
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $20.9k0% 74d agoexcluded
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $52.6k
2.5× usual
98% 76d agoexcluded
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $19.1k98% 77d agoexcluded
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $17.0k85% 83d agocalled
France vs. England: Team to WinLOW BUY France @ 47¢ $24.4k47% 97d agoexcluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 61¢ $71.1k
3.4× usual
61% 101d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $14.3k40% 121d agomissed
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ $32.0k65% 121d agoexcluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 36¢ $10.2k36% 121d agomissed
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?LOW BUY No @ 38¢ $11.8k38% 128d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $72.2k
3.5× usual
94% 136d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $17.7k90% 136d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $14.5k94% 136d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ $51.6k
2.5× usual
72% 138d agoexcluded
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $21.9k0% 145d agoexcluded

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