0x4488…e319

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 9.5 wins, so it did +12.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +10.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$3,000No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $183.0k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$2,500Yes · avg 90¢ → 92.5¢ · $92.5k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$15.3kYes · avg 12¢ → 20¢ · $40.0k · 0 proven with, 1 against 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$1,250Yes · avg 64¢ → 66¢ · $33.2k · 2 proven with, 0 against Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?−$496No · avg 83¢ → 80¢ · $16.3k Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?−$674Yes · avg 83¢ → 80¢ · $16.0k Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$375Yes · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $15.9k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?+$405No · avg 95.3¢ → 98.3¢ · $13.1k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Same side: 2 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+12.9 pts

Called / graded

11/12

Expected from price

9.5

Flagged volume

$3.66M

Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$33k

12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 65¢) and the edge is +10.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 14% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 74% · n=5

80–100¢

100% vs 94% · n=6

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$687.4k

Last 30 days +$94.2k · $82.24M volume · 105,308 trades · since Oct 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	3	3	2.2	+27.7 pts
Economy	1	1	0.8	+15.0 pts
Other	8	7	6.4	+7.1 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$32.0k	64%	2d ago	pending
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢	$20.2k	73%	3d ago	pending
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$31.6k	99%	19d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$20.7k	77%	35d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$21.2k	75%	36d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$12.6k	85%	39d ago	called
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$124.6k 5.0× usual	100%	39d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 74¢	$11.1k	74%	57d ago	excluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$166.8k 6.7× usual	99%	66d ago	excluded
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$21.8k	87%	80d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$149.8k 6.0× usual	100%	93d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$25.9k	99%	95d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 1.3¢	$13.0k	99%	110d ago	excluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$15.5k	0%	114d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$22.3k	0%	114d ago	excluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$18.3k	0%	114d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$11.0k	100%	115d ago	excluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$17.0k	100%	115d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢	$29.7k	99%	117d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢	$15.4k	99%	117d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$29.7k	99%	124d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$40.3k	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$68.4k 2.8× usual	99%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢	$11.1k	98%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 83¢	$64.5k 2.6× usual	17%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 96¢	$55.2k 2.2× usual	4%	131d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$10.4k	52%	138d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢	$16.0k	29%	141d ago	missed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED SELL No @ 71¢	$42.9k	29%	141d ago	missed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$149.6k 6.0× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED SELL Yes @ 73¢	$36.6k	27%	143d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$91.6k 3.7× usual	100%	145d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$21.5k	78%	147d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$18.6k	98%	187d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢	$46.6k	99%	191d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢	$10.7k	28%	195d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$47.1k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$24.9k	100%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢	$16.8k	94%	207d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 95.3¢	$37.9k	5%	207d ago	missed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 65¢	$10.3k	65%	207d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$10.5k	81%	210d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$19.3k	96%	220d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$23.5k	94%	222d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$161.7k 6.5× usual	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$36.4k	96%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$11.7k	96%	237d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$16.4k	75%	237d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 55¢	$26.3k	45%	237d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$34.9k	1%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$11.8k	79%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 80¢	$59.3k 2.4× usual	20%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$19.7k	98%	239d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$10.1k	98%	242d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$29.6k	99%	244d ago	excluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$12.2k	0%	257d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$34.5k	82%	261d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED SELL No @ 91¢	$50.9k 2.0× usual	9%	261d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$15.8k	79%	262d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$14.1k	89%	263d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$48.3k	100%	264d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$13.9k	82%	264d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$151.5k 6.1× usual	76%	264d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$28.7k	87%	264d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$11.8k	79%	264d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$24.6k	82%	265d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$24.9k	1%	266d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$24.1k	74%	277d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$12.6k	95%	279d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$170.6k 6.9× usual	95%	279d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$32.6k	96%	280d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$11.9k	79%	282d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 86¢	$12.9k	14%	292d ago	missed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 2.0× usual	100%	293d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 2.0× usual	100%	294d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$49.6k	99%	331d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢	$113.7k 4.6× usual	97%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 92.4¢	$39.0k	92%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 93.6¢	$234.0k 9.4× usual	6%	354d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢	$19.0k	95%	354d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.6¢	$10.3k	94%	356d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.4¢	$11.5k	93%	356d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢	$11.0k	93%	356d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.8¢	$40.2k	6%	357d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.5¢	$29.3k	92%	358d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$113.7k 4.6× usual	91%	359d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED SELL Yes @ 67¢	$26.6k	33%	612d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢	$66.0k 2.7× usual	66%	618d ago	missed

0x4488…e319

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

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