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What this means. A wallet put $18.5k on not No, at a price that gave it a 6% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.5k
SELL No @ 94.4¢ · 19,644 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sidePolitics
What happened
Wallet 0x7401…47a5 took No (sell) for $18.5k at an average 94.4¢. At that price the market implied a 6% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 94.4¢
- Implied odds
- 5.6%
- Size
- $18.5k
- Placed
- Oct 04, 17:46 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:40 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x7401…47a5
- Tx
- 0xa1abb3ab…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-5.6 pts
expected 0.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -6 ptsNo price · entry 94.4¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 94.6¢ | $70.5k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $38.4k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $17.5k | missed |