almost-never

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +7.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$76.6kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $206.6k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$76.6kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $53.4k 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$1,382Yes · avg 62¢ → 66¢ · $20.8k · 2 proven with, 0 against Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,265No · avg 80¢ → 91.5¢ · $10.1k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$36Yes · avg 80¢ → 92¢ · $276

Price-adjusted edge

+7.2 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

2.8

Flagged volume

$203.1k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$93.9k

Last 30 days +$39.2k · $11.77M volume · 10,857 trades · since Apr 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 452 closed

+$154.3k

Open P&L · 37 positions

−$29.5k

Closed-position win rate

45%

452 closed

Wallet age · markets

927d

356 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	3	3	2.8	+7.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$38.4k 2.2× usual	90%	19d ago	called
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED BUY Yes @ 72¢	$39.2k 2.3× usual	72%	138d ago	excluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$15.9k	72%	138d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$14.9k	0%	195d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$10.9k	87%	195d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$19.0k	95%	355d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.6¢	$10.7k	94%	356d ago	called
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$54.0k 3.1× usual	99%	359d ago	excluded

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?called

BUY No @ 90¢$38.4k

MED almost-never · 19d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 72¢$39.2k

MED almost-never · 138d ago

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

BUY No @ 72¢$15.9k

LOW almost-never · 138d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$14.9k

LOW almost-never · 195d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded

BUY No @ 87¢$10.9k

LOW almost-never · 195d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 94.9¢$19.0k

LOW almost-never · 355d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 93.6¢$10.7k

LOW almost-never · 356d ago

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$54.0k

LOW almost-never · 359d ago

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