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What this means. A wallet put $50.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 85% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +15.0 pts vs the price over 46 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$50.2k
BUY No @ 85¢ · 58,818 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet ScottyNooo took No (buy) for $50.2k at an average 85¢. At that price the market implied a 85% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $50.2k+1
3 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 85¢ means
85%chance the market gave
−582American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Implied odds
- 85.3%
- Size
- $50.2k
- Placed
- Jan 03, 14:26 EST
- Market close
- Feb 01, 02:41 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ScottyNooo
- Tx
- 0xb82ebcc2…
This wallet's graded record
45/46+15.0 pts
expected 38.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $156.2k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $28.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $24.3k | called |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 95.6¢ | $89.4k 3.9× usual |
called |