GoriIIa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 32 of 34. The prices it paid implied about 27.7 wins, so it did +12.8 pts better than the market expected. That's a proven record: +12.8 pts vs the price over 34 bets. Without its single best bet: +10.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?+$25.9kNo · avg 83¢ → 93.5¢ · $239.3k Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$12.5kNo · avg 90.8¢ → 96.9¢ · $200.2k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$2,638No · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $40.2k Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?+$1,090No · avg 93.7¢ → 97.5¢ · $28.1k Iran leadership change by December 31?+$33No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $24.1k Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?+$500Yes · avg 83¢ → 85¢ · $23.9k Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?−$1,357No · avg 89¢ → 84¢ · $23.0k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$100No · avg 95¢ → 94.5¢ · $18.9k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

+12.8 pts

Called / graded

32/34

Expected from price

27.7

Flagged volume

$3.10M

Sample size34 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±5.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$214k

34 graded bets in the order they resolved · 32 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 17¢) and the edge is +10.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

50% vs 13% · n=4

60–80¢

100% vs 69% · n=1

80–100¢

100% vs 91% · n=29

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$581.9k

Last 30 days +$10.8k · $42.80M volume · 13,055 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	8	6	4.1	+23.7 pts
Politics	5	5	4.7	+5.5 pts
Economy	2	2	1.9	+6.9 pts
Other	19	19	17.0	+10.7 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$19.0k	95%	18h ago	pending
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.1¢	$13.7k	3%	60d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 87¢	$15.5k	13%	94d ago	missed
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	MED BUY No @ 92.9¢	$34.5k	93%	94d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢	$15.0k	96%	94d ago	called
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$19.5k	88%	99d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.3¢	$13.3k	95%	100d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$20.1k	19%	100d ago	missed
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 91¢	$13.7k	91%	101d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢	$24.5k	94%	101d ago	called
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$15.0k	90%	107d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 94.1¢	$13.7k	94%	109d ago	called
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$15.6k	97%	112d ago	excluded
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$22.5k	97%	114d ago	called
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$12.7k	85%	115d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 20¢	$35.9k	80%	116d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$97.4k 4.2× usual	99%	117d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$11.3k	94%	124d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 90¢	$27.0k	10%	147d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$27.6k	92%	149d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.9¢	$59.1k 2.6× usual	97%	150d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 17¢	$16.1k	17%	159d ago	called
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 5.2¢	$10.7k	5%	159d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 8.6¢	$24.3k	9%	159d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 17¢	$13.2k	17%	159d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 11¢	$35.5k	11%	159d ago	missed
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$25.3k	100%	160d ago	excluded
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.3¢	$49.1k 2.1× usual	96%	160d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	MED SELL No @ 92¢	$21.3k	8%	169d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢	$22.8k	95%	170d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$194.4k 8.4× usual	100%	176d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	MED BUY No @ 99.6¢	$298.1k 12.9× usual	100%	178d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢	$30.5k	99%	181d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$16.1k	98%	182d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$22.5k	89%	184d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$40.0k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	MED SELL No @ 86¢	$21.5k	14%	197d ago	missed
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	MED SELL Yes @ 85¢	$70.9k 3.1× usual	15%	197d ago	missed
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$19.6k	87%	199d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$42.6k	87%	200d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$13.1k	87%	201d ago	called
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$10.3k	89%	208d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$11.8k	90%	229d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	HIGH BUY No @ 87¢	$133.1k 5.8× usual	87%	230d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$18.6k	88%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 69¢	$12.5k	69%	236d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.6¢	$37.3k	91%	238d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.8¢	$32.4k	91%	239d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢	$21.4k	91%	241d ago	called
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$27.6k	89%	241d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$22.2k	88%	245d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$47.7k 2.1× usual	97%	251d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 97¢	$77.6k 3.4× usual	97%	255d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$12.5k	91%	259d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$72.1k 3.1× usual	100%	259d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$101.4k 4.4× usual	99%	262d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$18.1k	89%	264d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$46.3k 2.0× usual	99%	264d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.2¢	$79.0k 3.4× usual	90%	284d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	MED BUY No @ 95.8¢	$73.1k 3.2× usual	96%	284d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$23.5k	85%	285d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$89.4k 3.9× usual	96%	288d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$20.9k	96%	288d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$11.5k	94%	291d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$189.6k 8.2× usual	91%	291d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$32.9k	90%	330d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$20.9k	95%	344d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$63.6k 2.7× usual	93%	350d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 90.7¢	$80.3k 3.5× usual	91%	353d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 94¢	$47.3k 2.0× usual	94%	358d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL Yes @ 51¢	$20.6k	49%	571d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED SELL Yes @ 53¢	$33.8k	47%	573d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY Yes @ 71¢	$86.1k 3.7× usual	71%	583d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢	$11.2k	76%	584d ago	missed

GoriIIa

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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