← Wallets
−$814No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $104.0k+$9,285No · avg 73¢ → 80¢ · $95.4k+$4,108No · avg 76¢ → 80¢ · $68.2k+$669No · avg 92¢ → 94.2¢ · $28.0k+$22.8kYes · avg 5.2¢ → 76¢ · $24.5k+$7,934Yes · avg 62¢ → 93.5¢ · $23.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$3,927Yes · avg 3.9¢ → 5.2¢ · $15.6k−$1,758Yes · avg 22¢ → 20¢ · $13.3k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 5.8 wins, so it did +1.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+1.4 pts
Called / graded
6/12
Expected from price
5.8
Flagged volume
$2.32M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$87k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 55¢) and the edge is -2.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=5
40–60¢
50% vs 50% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.21M
Last 30 days −$18.7k · $497.19M volume · 606,382 trades · since Jan 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$17.23M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.79M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1739d
9878 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.5 pts |
| Other | 10 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.4 pts |
History
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