← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $156.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$156.2k
BUY No @ 99.9¢ · 156,308 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteProven wallet5.8× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (buy) for $156.2k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $156.2k+2
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 99.9%
- Size
- $156.2k
- Placed
- Feb 01, 01:03 EST
- Market close
- Feb 01, 02:41 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xd349d334…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +0 ptsNo price · entry 99.9¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $28.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $24.3k | called |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 95.6¢ | $89.4k 3.9× usual |
called |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $10.6k | called |