← Wallets
+$1,370No · avg 78¢ → 88¢ · $13.0k+$772No · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $10.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,926No · avg 61¢ → 78¢ · $8,911−$1,359Yes · avg 89¢ → 76¢ · $7,356−$483No · avg 90¢ → 80¢ · $4,199+$47No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $3,828+$996No · avg 69¢ → 94.5¢ · $3,680 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$611No · avg 77¢ → 66¢ · $3,666
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +1.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+1.2 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$118.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$10k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? at 82¢) and the edge is -3.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$18.1k
Last 30 days −$1,049 · $3.93M volume · 8,300 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$301.5k
Open P&L · 86 positions
+$4,844
Closed-position win rate
86%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
296d
788 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -26.0 pts |
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢ | $14.8k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $21.3k | called |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ | $16.0k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $12.3k | called |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $10.6k | called |
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