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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -16.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$153.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$350.0k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.96M volume · 155 trades · since Feb 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$350.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
22%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
245d
18 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -16.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢ | $13.4k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $49.5k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $50.0k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ | $40.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8fba3a…