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What this means. A wallet put $78.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 68% chance. It won. This wallet has a losing record: -17.7 pts vs the price over 33 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$78.1k
BUY No @ 68¢ · 114,198 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)3.1× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet SwissMiss took No (buy) for $78.1k at an average 68¢. At that price the market implied a 68% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $78.1k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 68¢ means
68%chance the market gave
−217American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 68¢
- Implied odds
- 68.4%
- Size
- $78.1k
- Placed
- Aug 15, 19:20 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SwissMiss
- Tx
- 0x9c47609c…
This wallet's graded record
22/33-17.7 pts
expected 27.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +32 ptsNo price · entry 68¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |