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+$3No · avg 63¢ → 94¢ · $9
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did -26.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-26.1 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$2.15M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$43k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? at 8¢) and the edge is -42.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 8% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 87% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.27M
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.29M volume · 6,954 trades · since Nov 26, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$614.0k
Open P&L · 25 positions
−$678.1k
Closed-position win rate
73%
71 closed
Wallet age · markets
332d
93 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 4 | 6.1 | -26.1 pts |
History
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