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Kevindoto

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -10.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$8,635No · avg 73¢ → 82¢ · $81.5kWill GameStop acquire eBay?+$5,039No · avg 87¢ → 94¢ · $63.6kWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+$12.5kNo · avg 75¢ → 97.2¢ · $56.1kLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?+$881No · avg 94.6¢ → 96.3¢ · $49.8kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$12.3kNo · avg 64¢ → 88¢ · $44.3k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$3,190No · avg 66¢ → 74¢ · $31.5k · 1 proven with, 0 againstBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?+$333No · avg 82¢ → 83¢ · $24.9kIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?+$8,884No · avg 53¢ → 97.4¢ · $19.5k
Price-adjusted edge
-10.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$2.09M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$654.2k
Last 30 days +$23.8k · $17.33M volume · 10,657 trades · since Jul 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.07M
Open P&L · 32 positions
+$55.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
820d
684 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other211.2-10.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.6¢ $10.6k99% 33d agoexcluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢ $10.6k26% 34d agomissed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW SELL Yes @ 75¢ $11.2k25% 56d agomissed
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?LOW SELL No @ 28¢ $11.1k72% 72d agocalled
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $16.6k83% 73d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $30.6k100% 85d agoexcluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $82.1k
3.3× usual
100% 94d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $77.4k
3.1× usual
100% 115d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $21.1k1% 130d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $15.2k1% 131d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $24.8k1% 131d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $26.0k99% 143d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 70¢ $15.0k30% 188d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $154.6k
6.2× usual
100% 197d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 201d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $11.4k86% 203d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $10.2k45% 205d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $35.3k2% 260d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $35.3k98% 261d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k0% 262d agoexcluded
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $30.1k99% 262d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $30.9k0% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $156.7k
6.3× usual
0% 263d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $22.0k99% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $33.0k100% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $180.6k
7.2× usual
100% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k
2.0× usual
100% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $33.4k90% 268d agocalled
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $53.0k
2.1× usual
0% 268d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k1% 272d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $22.5k1% 274d agoexcluded
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $16.5k0% 280d agoexcluded
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $37.5k99% 287d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $22.5k98% 288d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $10.7k99% 289d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.0× usual
100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $244.2k
9.8× usual
100% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.3k1% 296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $32.3k0% 296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 96.1¢ $17.0k4% 308d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $128.7k
5.2× usual
100% 318d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $31.8k1% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $14.9k1% 318d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $29.2k1% 326d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ $11.8k7% 358d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $15.9k91% 378d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $12.4k89% 378d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $42.9k82% 448d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $29.7k90% 450d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ $18.8k70% 477d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $20.1k90% 479d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.6¢$10.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 33d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed
SELL Yes @ 74¢$10.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 34d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed
SELL Yes @ 75¢$11.2k
LOW Kevindoto · 56d ago
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?called
SELL No @ 28¢$11.1k
LOW Kevindoto · 72d ago
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?missed
BUY No @ 83¢$16.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 73d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$30.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 85d ago
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$82.1k
LOW Kevindoto · 94d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$77.4k
LOW Kevindoto · 115d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$21.1k
LOW Kevindoto · 130d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$15.2k
LOW Kevindoto · 131d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$24.8k
LOW Kevindoto · 131d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$26.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 143d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?missed
SELL No @ 70¢$15.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 188d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$154.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 197d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 201d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 86¢$11.4k
LOW Kevindoto · 203d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?missed
BUY No @ 45¢$10.2k
LOW Kevindoto · 205d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.1¢$35.3k
LOW Kevindoto · 260d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$35.3k
LOW Kevindoto · 261d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 262d ago
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$30.1k
LOW Kevindoto · 262d ago
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$30.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 262d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$156.7k
MED Kevindoto · 263d ago
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$22.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 263d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$33.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$180.6k
LOW Kevindoto · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 90¢$33.4k
LOW Kevindoto · 268d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$53.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 268d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$19.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 272d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$22.5k
LOW Kevindoto · 274d ago
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$16.5k
LOW Kevindoto · 280d ago
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$37.5k
LOW Kevindoto · 287d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$22.5k
LOW Kevindoto · 288d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$10.7k
LOW Kevindoto · 289d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$244.2k
LOW Kevindoto · 295d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$19.3k
LOW Kevindoto · 296d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$32.3k
LOW Kevindoto · 296d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 96.1¢$17.0k
LOW Kevindoto · 308d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$128.7k
LOW Kevindoto · 318d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$31.8k
LOW Kevindoto · 318d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$14.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 318d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$29.2k
LOW Kevindoto · 326d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 93.2¢$11.8k
LOW Kevindoto · 358d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 91¢$15.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 378d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 89¢$12.4k
LOW Kevindoto · 378d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 82¢$42.9k
LOW Kevindoto · 448d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 90¢$29.7k
LOW Kevindoto · 450d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 70¢$18.8k
LOW Kevindoto · 477d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 90¢$20.1k
LOW Kevindoto · 479d ago

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